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Post by gadgets88 on Aug 17, 2007 11:35:46 GMT 8
Any agents or investors who are into stock market trading?
I was browsing the forums of Philippine Stocks Exchange (PSE) and ManilaFinance and I don't understand a thing.
Anybody who can show me the way?
Like what shares to buy, when, how much, what to expect, what socio-economic/political factors/index/charts/signals/business mergers to monitor?
Should I go back to school and get an MBA? On second thought, coming from a technical background with no business savvy and zero stock knowledge, how will I survive in this crazy business world?
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Post by allegra on Aug 17, 2007 18:22:16 GMT 8
Real estate is a lot safer
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Post by whoopi on Aug 17, 2007 19:14:56 GMT 8
i don't have the guts to play in the stock market, never owned any "outside" stocks except equity offered by my current and previous employers to employees. what i own i don't actively trade; i either hold or liquidate in one go. i know a few people though who trade, and what i've picked up from them are: 1. know what kind of investor you are. this exercise might help: www.sunlife.com.ph/mutualfunds/kyc.aspwhat's your risk tolerance? are you the type who'd go in and quickly get out, or are you in for the long haul? the answers to these depend on how much you can invest and how liquid you need to be. like, if you have regular expenses like mortgage and amortizations, or if you anticipate to be making a downpayment for something in x-years, then obviously you need your cash there and not tied up in a risky investment. 2. "veteran" stock market players monitor the movement in stocks over a long period, and they say that in general August is the time to buy, because the Chinese believe this month to be inauspicious (true?) and so they actually dispose or sell in order to have cash on hand, i.e., stock prices go down. after August, they start reacquiring investments, so prices go up. that's the time to sell. 3. some of my friends buy "basura" stocks, or stocks whose prices are nearly on the floor (less than Php1.00 or something like that). the wisdom behind this supposedly is, your Php100,000 will buy more basura shares than blue chip shares. when prices move your loss or gain depends on how many shares you own. basura shares, by the laws of market physics, will eventually go up (you can't go further down), so even if it kicks to just Php1, if you owned 200,000 shares that you originally bought for Php.50, then you've already profited Php100,000 (100%--not bad!). whereas, if you used your Php100,000 to buy PLDT shares at Php2,500/share, you can only buy 40 shares. if the price went up to Php2,700/share (Php200 price hike per share), you'll only make Php8,000 (8% profit only--well, still higher than bank interest rates). 4. they say stocks in energy and technology are good. they are "exploration" types of industry. when they begin, they start at low prices because they are untested, most investors want to sit back first and see how things would develop. so buy while prices are low. if the "exploration" succeeds (i.e., they strike oil, they invent a cheaper replacement to iPod), then prices will kick up. the risk of course is if the exploration goes nowhere. i've always marveled at the artificality of the stock market. people say they've made millions out of it, but it's really millions on paper. it's not money in your pocket that buys a vacation to Antarctica, until you've actually sold your shares. but when you sell you actually affect the market, supply goes up so somehow you depress the price. on the other hand, some people have killed themselves for losing on the stock market. but it's not really loss until you've sold. it's only when you get out of it that you'll know if you've really made money or not. it's a strange animal. before deciding to go into stocks, consider fixed asset investments (e.g., real estate) that are lower-yielding but are also lower-risk because they are less subject to volatile market forces. someone also advised me that whatever investment i decide to go into, i must make sure the yield is higher than the prevailing interest rates. ("how do i know what's the interest rate?", i asked. "just go to any bank and ask", she says.) because if the yield merely approximates the interest rates, then your money is just going to get eaten by inflation over time. better just put your money daw in an alkansiya. banks normally don't stray too far from the prevailing interest rates (about 3% per annum). mutual funds i think go to about as high as 8-12%.
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Post by gadgets88 on Aug 18, 2007 8:36:09 GMT 8
How does one go into investing in real estate, how it works? The prevailing Time deposit rates are around 5% net. So low that I'm better off buying the place I'm renting now, because the interest in my time deposit does not cover the rent expense. The problem is the one I'm renting is not for sale, those on sale are not to my liking. It's always best to invest in a business venture of familiarity, of course. My photography hobby pays for itself. Thanks for so many friends who never seem to run out of new babies coming out every year. ;D There must be something in my face that scares adults, but makes children smile on cue, even the seldom ones (matipid tumawa) glow on my takes. This fact was pointed out to me by friends and relatives, that's when I realized I'm perfect for this niche market (child photography) and went pro. I'm still wondering how I can earn money in this biking hobby, I suspect it is from winning races with money pot on the line?
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Post by gadgets88 on Aug 18, 2007 13:07:41 GMT 8
I have several wonderful questions in my mind, in case anybody kind-hearted cares to respond.
I’m the type of athlete, you see (a swimmer for example), who discuss the mechanics on end before actually jumping into the water.
On the other hand, I have friends who are presently actively engaging in trash stocks and small chips (instead of blue chips) in the hope of earning the easy way. I just can’t swallow the logic or mathematics involved.
Ok, here are some common sense questions I promised a few seconds ago, it goes like this: “If the premise of stocks trading is that seasoned traders earn by buying at the floor price from <secret agent> and selling at the ceiling price to newbies (suckers no less), then how does one become an inside member to get a slice of the pie (at floor price)? Do I have to use Allegra’s charm to date the hot chick agent or what? How does one find a decent agent? How does one give incentive to the agent so that she will advice you to earn profits and keep losses to a minimum?
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Post by gadgets88 on Aug 18, 2007 13:09:58 GMT 8
While waiting for advice and replies, here’s something I wanna share with you.
---------------------- << start of article >> --------------------------
The Deadly Art Of Stock Manipulation
HOT STOCKS CONFIDENTIAL ESSAY
By George Chelekis
NOTE: I believe this may be one of the most important essays on the financial markets which you will ever read. This essay will be the lead article in Hot Stocks Review, (Part Two). Up until recently, I knew that I was missing something, but I could not quite put my finger on it. Now I know what it is. The data which follows is only as good as you can actually use it. These are the cold, savage and ruthless facts of market manipulation. I have not made these up, but have dug them up out of out-dated, generally unavailable books on Canadian market manipulations, and pieced the rest together from observations, personal experiences and conversations with market professionals and insiders. While the books are out of date, the manipulations have been passed down from one generation to another. The only thing missing was someone to supply you with what those tricks were so you can become a more educated speculator. Many thanks to Robert Short and Vern Flannery, of Market News Publishing, for finding and sending me a copy of the book, "The Story Behind Canadian Mining Speculation" by T. H. Mitchell, first published in 1957 by George J. McLeod Limited; also Ivan Shaffer's book, "The Stock Promotion Game." I have been told that many of these tricks are now illegal. If so, would someone please tell that to the market manipulators.
THE DEADLY ART OF STOCK MANIPULATION....
In every profession, there are probably a dozen or two major rules. Knowing them cold is what separates the professional from the amateur. Not knowing them at all? Well, let's put it this way: How safe would you feel if you suddenly found yourself piloting (solo) a Boeing 747 as it were landing on an airstrip? Unless you are a professional pilot, you would probably be frightened out of your wits and would soil your underwear. Hold that thought as you read this essay because I will explain to you how market manipulation works.
In order to successfully speculate, one should presume the following: THE SMALL CAP STOCK MARKETS PRIMARILY EXIST TO FLEECE YOU! I'm talking about Vancouver, Alberta, the Canadian Dealing Network and the US Over-the Counter markets (Pink Sheets, Bulletin Board, etc.). One could also stretch this, with many stocks, to include the world's senior stock markets, including Toronto, New York, NASDAQ, London, etc. The average investor or speculator is not very likely to have much success in the small cap crapshoots. I guess that is what attracted ME to these markets. I have been trying, for quite some time, to answer this question, "How come?" Now, I know. And you should, too!
By the way, the premise of these books is uniformly: "While these speculative companies do not actually make any money, one can profit by speculating in these companies." THAT is the premise on how these markets are run, by both the stock promoters, insiders, brokers, analysts and others in this industry. That logic is flawed in that it presumes "someone else" is going to end up holding the dirty bag. Follow this premise all the way through and you will realize the insane conclusion: For these markets to continue along that route, new suckers have to continue coming into the marketplace. The conclusion is insane in that such mad activity can only be short-lived. I disagree with this premise and propose another solution (see my earlier essay: A Modest Proposal) at the end of this essay.
What the professionals and the securities regulators know and understand, which the rest of us do not, is this.
"RULE NUMBER ONE: ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN -- ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE."
This should explain why a mining company finds something good and "nothing happens" or the stock goes down. At the same time, for NO apparent reason, a stock suddenly takes off for the sky! On little volume! Someone is manipulating that stock, often with an unfounded rumor.
In order to make these market manipulations work, the professionals assume: (a) The Public is STUPID and (b) The Public will mainly buy at the HIGH and (c) The Public will sell at the LOW. Therefore, as long as the market manipulator can run crowd control, he can be successful.
Let's face it: The reason you speculate in such markets is that you are greedy AND optimistic. You believe in a better tomorrow and NEED to make money quickly. It is this sentiment which is exploited by the market manipulator. He controls YOUR greed and fear about a particular stock. If he wants you to buy, the company's prospects look like the next Microsoft. If the manipulator wants you to desert the sinking ship, he suddenly becomes very guarded in his remarks about the company, isn't around to glowingly answer questions about the company and/or GETS issued very bad news about the company. Which brings us to the next important rule.
"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."
Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured. Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PR firms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public. Contracts to appear on radio talk shows are signed and implemented. Stockbrokers get "cheap" stock to recommend the company to their "book" (that means YOU, the client in his book). An advertising campaign is rolled out (television ads, newspaper ads, card deck mailings). The company signs up to exhibit at "investment conferences" and "gold shows" (mainly so they can get a little "podium time" to hype you on their stock and tell you how "their company is really different" and "not a stock promotion.") Funny little "hype" messages are posted on Internet newsgroups by the same cast of usual suspects. The more, the merrier. And a little "juice" can go a long way toward running up the stock price.
The HYPE is on. The more clever a stock promoter, the better his knowledge of the advertising business. Little gimmicks like "positioning" are used. Example: Make a completely unknown company look warm and fuzzy and appealing to you by comparing it to a recent success story, Diamond Fields or Bre-X Minerals. That is the POSITIONING gospel, authored by Ries and Trout (famous for "Avis: We Want To Be #1" and "We Try Harder" and other such slogans). These advertising/PR executives must have stumbled onto this formula after losing their shirts speculating in a few Canadian stock promotions! The only reason you have been invited to this seemingly incredible banquet is that YOU are the main course. After the market manipulator has suckered you into "his investment," exchanging HIS paper for YOUR cash, the walls begin to close in on you. Why is that?
"RULE NUMBER THREE: AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN."
Your favorite home-run stock has just stalled or retreated a bit from its high. Suddenly, there is a news VACUUM. Either NO news or BAD rumors. I discovered this with quite a few stocks. I would get LOADS of information and "hot tips." All of a sudden, my pipeline was shut-off. Some companies would even issue a news release CONDEMNING me ("We don't need 'that kind of hype' referring to me!). Cute, huh? When the company wanted fantastic hype circulated hither and yon, there would be someone there to spoon-feed me. The second the distribution phase was DONE....ooops! Sorry, no more news. Or, "I'm sorry. He's not in the office." Or, "He won't be back until Monday."
The really slick market manipulators would even seed the Internet news groups or other journalists to plant negative stories about that company. Or start a propaganda campaign of negative rumors on all available communication vehicles. Even hiring a "contrarian" or "special PR firm" to drive down the price. Even hiring someone to attack the guy who had earlier written glowingly about the company. (This is not a game for the faint-hearted!)
You'll also see the stock drifting endlessly. You may even experience a helpless feeling, as if you were floating in outer space without a lifeline. That is exactly HOW the market manipulator wants you to feel. See Rule Number Five below. He may also be doing this to avoid the severe disappointment of a "dry hole" or a "failed deal." You'll hear that oft-cried refrain, "Oh well, that's the junior minerals exploration business... very risky!" Or the oft-quoted statistic, "Nine out of 10 businesses fail each year and this IS a Venture Capital Startup stock exchange." Don't think it wasn't contrived. If a geologist at a junior mining company wasn't optimistic and rosy in his promise of exploration success, he would be replaced by someone who was! Ditto for the high-tech deal, in a world awash with PhD's.
So, how do you know when you are being taken? Look again at
Rule #1. Inside that rule, a few other rules unfold which explain how a stock price is manipulated.
"RULE NUMBER FOUR: ANY STOCK THAT TRADES HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE."
When there was less volume, the price was lower. Professionals were accumulating. After the price runs, the volume increases. The professionals bought low and sold high. The amateurs bought high (and will soon enough sell low). In older books about market manipulation and stock promotion, which I've recently studied, the markup price referred to THREE times higher than the floor. The floor is the launchpad for the stock. For example, if one looks at the stock price and finds a steady flatline on the stock's chart of around 10 cents, then that range is the FLOOR. Basically, the markup phase can go as high as the market manipulator is capable of taking it. From my observations, a good markup should be able to run about five to ten times higher than the floor, with six to seven being common. The market manipulator will do everything in his power to keep you OUT OF THE STOCK until the share price has been marked up by at least two-three times, sometimes resorting to "shaking you out" until after he has accumulated enough shares. Once the markup has begun, the stock chart will show you one or more spikes in the volume -- all at much higher prices (marked up by the manipulator, of course). That is DISTRIBUTION and nothing else.
Example: Look at Software Control Systems (Alberta:XVN), in which I purchased shares after it had been marked up five times. There were eight days of 500,000 (plus) shares trading hands, with one day of 750,000 shares trading hands. Market manipulator(s) dumping shares into the volume at higher prices. WHENEVER you see HUGE volume after the stock has risen on a 75 degree angle, the distribution phase has started and you are likely to be buying in -- at or near the stock's peak price.
Example: Look at Diamond Fields (TSE FR), which never increased at a 75 degree angle and did not have abnormal volume spikes, yet in less than two years ran from C$4 to C$160/share.
Example: Look at Bre-X Minerals (Alberta:BXM), which did not experience its first 75 degree angle, with huge volume until July 14th, 1995. The next two trading days, BXM went down and stayed around C$12/share for two weeks. The volume had been 60% higher nearly a month earlier, with only a slight price increase. Each high volume and spectacular increase in BXM's share price was met with a price retreat and leveling off. "Suddenly," BXM wasn't trading at C$2/share; it was at C$170/share.... up 8500% in less than a year!
In both of the above cases, major Canadian newspapers ran extremely negative stories about both companies, at one time or another. In each instance, just before another share price run up, retail investors fled the stock! Just before both began yet another run up! Successful short-term speculators generally exit any stock run up when the volume soars; amateurs get greedy and buy at those points.
"RULE NUMBER FIVE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL ALWAYS TRY TO GET YOU TO BUY AT THE HIGHEST, AND SELL AT THE LOWEST PRICE POSSIBLE."
Just as the manipulator will use every available means to invite you to "the party," he will savagely and brutally drive you away from "his stock" when he has fleeced you. The first falsehood you assume is that the stock promoter WANTS you to make a bundle by investing in his company. So begins a string of lies that run for as long as your stomach can take it.
You will get the first clue that "you have been had" when the stock stalls at the higher level. Somehow, it ran out of steam and you are not sure why. Well, it ran out of steam because the market manipulator stopped running it up. It's over inflated and he can't convince more people to buy. The volume dries up while the share price seems to stall. LOOK AT THE TRADING VOLUME, NOT THE SHARE PRICE! When earlier, there may have been 500,000 shares trading each day for eight out of 12 trading days (as in the case of Software Control Systems), now the volume has slipped to 100,000 shares (or so) daily. There are some buyers there, enough for the manipulator to continue dumping his paper, but only so long as he can enlist one or more individuals/services to bang his drum.
He may continue feeding the promo guys a string of "promises" and "good news down the road." (Believe me, this HAS happened to me!) But, when the news finally arrives, the stock price goes THUD! This is entirely orchestrated by a market manipulator. You'll see it in the trading volume, most of which is CONTRIVED. A market manipulator will have various brokers buying and selling the stock to give the APPEARANCE of increasing volume and price so that YOU do start chasing it higher.
At some point during the stall stage, investors get fed up with the non-performance of the stock. It drifts for a while, in a steady retreat, with perhaps a short-lived spike in price and volume (the final signal that the manipulator has finally offloaded ALL of his paper). Then, the stock comes tumbling down -- having lost ALL of the earlier share appreciation.
Sometimes, with the more cruel manipulators, they will throw in a little false hope... giving you a little more rope so they can better hang you. Just after a severe drop, there will be a "bottom fishing" announcement which sends the share price up a bit on high volume, rises a little more after that and then continues to drift. Meanwhile, you keep getting "shaken out" through a cruel drip-drip water torture of the share price's slow retreat. Again, virtually every movement is completely orchestrated.
"RULE NUMBER SIX: IF THIS IS A REAL DEAL, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE LAST PERSON TO BE NOTIFIED OR WILL BE DRIVEN OUT AT THE LOWER PRICES."
Like Jesse Livermore wrote, "If there's some easy money lying around, no one is going to force it into your pocket." The same concept can be more clearly understood by watching the tape. When a market manipulator wants you into his stock, you will hear LOUD noises of stock promotion and hype. If you are "in the loop," you will be bombarded from many directions. Similarly, if he wants you out of the stock, then there will be orchestrated rumors being circulated, rapid-fired at you again from many directions. Just as good news may come to you in waves, so will bad news.
You will see evidence of a VERY sharp drop in the share price with HUGE volume. That is you and your buddies running for the exits. If the deal is really for real, the market manipulator wants to get ALL OF YOUR SHARES or as many as he can... and at the lowest price he can. Whereas before, he wanted you IN his market, so he could dump his shares to you at a higher price, NOW when he sees that this deal IS for real, he wants to pay as little as possible for those same shares... YOUR shares which he wants to you part with, as quickly as possible.
The market manipulator will shake you out by DRIVING the price as low as he can. Just as in the "accumulation" stage, he wants to keep everything as quiet as possible so he can snap up as many of the shares for himself, he will NOW turn down, or even turn off, the volume so he can repeat the accumulation phase.
In the mining business, there seems to always be another "area play" around the corner. Just as Voisey's Bay drifted into oblivion, during the fourth quarter of 1995 and early into 1996, the same Voisey Bay "wannabees" began striking deals in Indonesia. Some even used new corporate entities. Same crooks, different shingles. The accumulation phase was TOP SECRET. The noise level was deadingly silent. As soon as the insiders accumulated all their shares, they let YOU in on the secret.
"RULE NUMBER SEVEN: CONVERSELY, YOU WILL OFTEN BE THE LAST TO KNOW WHEN THIS DEAL SHOWS SIGNS OF FAILURE."
Twenty-twenty hindsight will often show you that there was a "little stumble" in the share price, just as the "assays were delayed" or the "deal didn't go through." Manipulators were peeling off their paper to START the downslide. And ACCELERATE it. The quick slide down makes it improbable for your getting out at more than what you originally paid for the stock... and gives you a better reason for holding onto it "a little longer" in case the price rebounds. Then, the drifting stage begins and fear takes over. And unless you have serves of steel and can afford to wait out the manipulator, you will more than likely end up selling out at a cheap price.
For the insider, marketmaker or underwriter is obliged to buy back all of your paper in order to keep his company alive and maintain control of it. The less he has to pay for your paper, the lower his cost will be to commence his stock promotion again... at some future date. Even if his company has no prospects AT ALL, his "shell" of a company has some value (only in that others might want to use that structure so they can run their own stock promotion). So, the manipulator WILL buy back his paper. He just wants to make sure that he pays as little for those shares as possible.
"RULE NUMBER EIGHT: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL COMPEL YOU INTO THE STOCK SO THAT YOU DRIVE UP ITS PRICE SHARES."
Placing a Market Order or Pre-Market Order is an amateur's mistake, typifying the US investor -- one who assumes that thinly traded issues are the same as blue chip stocks, to which they are accustomed. A market manipulator (traders included here) can jack up the share price during your market order and bring you back a confirmation at some preposterous level. The Market Manipulator will use the "tape" against you. He will keep buying up his own paper to keep you reaching for a higher price. He will get in line ahead of you to buy all the shares at the current price and force you to pay MORE for those shares. He will tease you and MAKE you reach for the higher price so you "won't miss out." Miss out on what? Getting your head chopped off, that's what!
One can avoid market manipulation by not buying during the huge price spikes and abnormal trading volumes, also known as chasing the stock to a higher price.
"RULE NUMBER NINE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR IS WELL AWARE OF THE EMOTIONS YOU ARE EXPERIENCING DURING A RUN UP AND A COLLAPSE AND WILL PLAY YOUR EMOTIONS LIKE A PIANO."
During the run up, you WILL have a rush of greed which compels you to run into the stock. During the collapse, you WILL have a fear that you will lose everything... so you will rush to exit. See how simple it is and how clear a bell it strikes? Don't think this formula isn't tattooed inside the mind of every manipulator. The market manipulator will play you on the way up and play you on the way down. If he does it very well, he will make it look like someone else's fault that you lost money! Promise to fill up your wallet? You'll rush into the stock. Scare you into losing every penny you have in that stock? You'll run away screaming with horror! And vow to NEVER, ever speculate in such stocks again. But many of you still do.... The manipulator even knows how to bring you back for yet another play.
What actors! No wonder Vancouver is sometimes called "Hollywood North."
"FINAL RULE: A NEW BATCH OF SUCKERS ARE BORN WITH EVERY NEW PLAY."
The Financial Markets are a Cruel, Unkind and Dangerous Playing Field, one place where the newest amateurs are generally fleeced the most brutally.... usually by those who KNOW the above rules.
Just as I have a duty to ensure that each of you understand how this game is played, YOU now have that same duty to guarantee that your fellow speculator understands these rules. Just as I would be a criminal for not making this data known to you, YOU would be just as criminal to keep it a secret. There will always be an unsuspecting, trusting fool whom the rabid dogs will tear to shreds, but it does NOT have to be this way.
IF every subscriber made this essay broadly known to his friends, acquaintances and family, and they passed it on to their friends, word of mouth could cause many of these market manipulators to pause. IF this effort were done strenuously by many, then perhaps the financial markets could weed out the crooked manipulators and the promoters could bring us more legitimate plays.
The stock markets are a financing tool. The companies BORROW money from you, when you invest or speculate in their companies. They want their share price going higher so they can finance their deal with less dilution of their shares... if they are good guys. But, how would you feel about a friend or family member who kept borrowing money from you and never repaid it? That would be theft, plain and simple. So, a market manipulator is STEALING your money. Don't let him do it anymore. Insist that the company in which you invest be honest or straight... or find another company in which to speculate. Your money talks in LOUDER volumes than any stock promotion scheme. ALWAYS refuse any deal which smells wrong.
Refuse to tolerate the scams prevalent in the financial markets. This can ONLY be accomplished by KNOWING and USING the above rules. Thoroughly COMPLETE your due diligence on a company before risking a dime. Dig up the Insider Reports to find out who is blowing out their paper, how often they are blowing out their paper and whatever happened to their "last play."
Begin to use this as YOUR rule of thumb: If the insider's paper is really worthless, then avoid it. Find another's whose paper DOES hold promise and honest possibilities. In these small cap stock markets, you are investing more in the INDIVIDUAL behind the play, than the "possibility" of the play itself. Ask yourself before speculating: Could I lend this person $5,000 for a year and hope to get it back? If not, then don't! Do it for your own good and the good of everyone else who is so foolish as to speculate in these financial markets!
The truly sane and only somewhat safe solution to all of this: FIND GOOD COMPANIES IN WHICH TO SPECULATE AND GET INTO THEM AT THE GROUND FLOOR LEVEL. Anything else is criminal or stupid. This is a case where there really isn't a gray area. It's either Black or it's White. The company and its management are scamsters or they really intend to bring value to their shareholders. ---------------------- << end of article >> --------------------------
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Post by ussprinceton2004 on Aug 18, 2007 14:45:53 GMT 8
look into the Japanese and Chinese stock markets since everything is made there
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Post by allegra on Aug 18, 2007 14:53:25 GMT 8
Real estate? same as every business of making money Buy low and sell high You look for bargains and you have to be ruthless in making tawad Then you have to be charming in making benta If your sikmura is matapang and you like dealing w/ govt peopel , you can go into development. or yu can buiold rental properties or resorts etc Land here in the RP is owned by so few , the property prices will never come down unless it was artificially up in the first place Unfortuantely , it's not a very liquid business
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Post by GALVinChie on Aug 18, 2007 16:05:50 GMT 8
If you have the guts, go for the "guicky ones". For a long term investment, go for the blue chips.
BTW, have you tried buying stocks?
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Post by maxbuwaya on Aug 18, 2007 17:18:07 GMT 8
Its just like Horse RaCing.
Only Classier
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Post by ussprinceton2004 on Aug 18, 2007 22:21:05 GMT 8
how much money are we talking about?
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Post by allegra on Aug 18, 2007 22:39:56 GMT 8
how much money are we talking about? 90% of the moneymen in RP lives in gadgets neihgborhood
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Post by marcs on Aug 19, 2007 11:14:37 GMT 8
I think it's best to go back to your financial objective. Saving to buy a house? Get married? Kid's college fund? New car? Your current situation, timeframe, and financial instruments available to you will help you decide what you will invest in. As with anything related to money, higher yield instruments always have higher risk. Particularly in stocks, you stand to lose as much as you stand to gain. If it's you life savings we're talking about, I wouldn't recommend putting it into "playing the stock market" particulalry if you have short term goals - (e.g. you need the money in the next couple of years). Over the long term, though, they say the risk of stocks are less, because even though prices fluctuate a lot on a day to day basis, generally, if the company is healthy, prices tend to go up over time as the company grows as well. You also need a pretty hefty capital if you wanna play. And I believe sometimes agents charge you on a per transaction basis, regardless if you're earning or not. Next best bet would be Mutual Funds. I think these instruments provide better returns with a reasonable amount of risk. This is because there is a fund manager that pools your money and does the investing for you. Several weeks ago, Mutual Funds had a yield of about 40-60% vs YA (now it's down to 20% vs YA, still better though than banks). With Mutual Funds, you have a choice between Funds that are more skewed towards stocks (Stock Funds) , Balanced Funds, and Bond Funds. I'm actually looking at PhilEquity Fund (Stock Fund) for some long term investments (e.g. kids college fund). Over the past 10 years I think this has averaged around 20% p.a. and while this is not an indication of future performance, assuming it will perform close to that, then that should be good enough to cover funds for college (with an annual increase of 12%, I estimate a 4 year course in exlusive schools will cost 2.4M in the year 2024 If I can even get 11% p.a. in Philequity over the next 18 years will give me this amount. And I disagree with whoopi regarding not investing if the ROI is close to the prevailing interest rate (inflation rate?). You have to match inflation rate, otherwise you are actually losing money. Which is why keeping your money in the bank, though it is "risk-free" at 2-5% p.a., you do carry the risk of losing it's value. Take the education example above, suppose I save enough for current prices college tuition (320k), and I want to keep it safe and put it in a bank. After 5 years, with tuition rising by 12% p.a., college will cost around 563k. Now I can't afford it simply because I let my money "sleep." So while you're deciding what to do with your money, it's still best to put it somewhere where it can earn a bit. 5% is still better than 0%. Real Estate can be a very lucrative business, and I have friends whose family have made a fortune in this (buying undeveloped land at dirt cheap price, develpong it, selling really high), but a couple of points 1.) You need a hefty capital to buy property 2.) Property prices can go down due to unforseen developments (e.g. a cement factory gets build right beside you) 3.) You're money is tied up until you can actually sell. This is worse if you take out a loan to buy the property. If you miss payments, bank takes your property. As for your point in having a business, that's also one that can have very good returns, but also carry risk of course. I'm also thinking of how to make money out of it (e.g. have a Philippine MTB tour provider?) As for the winning races, forget it. Even at the international level, pot money is often not enough, particularly factoring in time and equipment you have to put in to win that race. How about doing action photography ala Sterling Lorence? You can contribute to various action and health mags (i've yet to see really good pics there). You can also try sending jokes to Reader's Digest. I got USD300 for one joke but it took like 6 months to even be considered hehehe.
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Post by allegra on Aug 19, 2007 12:08:13 GMT 8
How about weight loss specialist? it quite lucrative , it's already paying for all my beer budget
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Post by gadgets88 on Aug 22, 2007 9:50:12 GMT 8
I put my money in the bank in Time Deposit earning 6%. Then the rate started dropping until all I'm getting is less than 4%. So I go around asking everybody for advice, even on the streets. How you you invest your money? Any good business ideas? Even passers-by who eavesdrop our conversations on the street join in the discussion... "excuse me, I heard you were discussing about invesments? I'm connected with this-that insurance company and we have this wonderful investment scheme!" So I went on to tell him that I'm not interested in insurance schemes. I have friends and relatives selling all sorts of insurance thank you. Besides, I'm not going to spend my money to insure my life. That is not the point. If my legs (or my life) earns money in Hollywood, then I'd insure my legs, but they don't so why bother? Insuring the lives of the children is even a sillier logic to me. For me, the point of insurance is to insure the capability of earning money, and the kids don't earn money, so why insure them? Then I got friends tell me that they're into stocks. That got me curious. Then they tell me horror stories, earning P1K here and there, then losing P20K in one go. Then they justify banking on trash stocks because of dreaming big. Instead of listening to the confusing jargon, I ask everybody in stocks trading how much they earn in one year, or all these years, say, 20 years. I got negative answers from most of them (Meaning they lost money). And my conclusion is... duh? Is this midlife crisis? People go into stock trading to add excitement in their lives? Because that's what all they get, excitement and misery. Which brings us back to the questions: What do I do to differentiate me from the losers? How do I educate myself and learn the trade? Be a stock agent? Go online somewhere and plot the charts? Go somewhere to develop my politics, economics and business sense? I need to listen to someone in the business relate how it's done so I can have an idea. I have never bought any stocks. Don't know what are quickie and blue stocks. Don't know how the buying is done. I've met a few agents but when they told me to buy stocks because it's ALL-TIME-HIGH, it made me wary. Buy at all time high? I may not have entered business school, but I do have enough IQ to know that one buys low and sell high, not the other way around! So... What are the stocks to buy? What are the signals that it's ALL-TIME-LOW? How do I get into the scene with the Sharks who have access to buying the stocks at all time low? Should I enroll myself in an MBA course, Stocks in the air is a little abstract for me. I just worry that I might end up using 3 hours all to myself asking questions to the professors... on my FIRST day in class!
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Post by gadgets88 on Aug 22, 2007 9:53:46 GMT 8
I have a question regarding real estate. What is capital gain? Why is it not according to the gain (profit) but according to the selling price? It doesn't make sense! I'd lose money if everything is done by the book!
I buy a unit for P10M, sell it P10.2M. Meaning I earned 0.2M or 200,000 from the transaction. The capital gain is based on P10.2M and not 0.2M!
What kind of mathematics is that? I don't understand! and I'm a math teacher!
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Post by whoopi on Aug 22, 2007 10:08:14 GMT 8
MARCS, i didn't say don't invest if the yield is close to the prevailing interest rates. invest, but pick something that has a higher (the higher the better) yield than prevailing interest rates. putting your money in a bank is still better than letting it languish in an alkansya. everything else you said, agreed. GADGETS, i hope you paid attention to MARCS' post.
all in all, the stock market, if you actively play, is just one huge casino. personally better look at it as a long-term investment (i.e., buy Ayala Land stocks now, forget about it, then 40 years later maybe your children will have a nice little inheritance).
also, i'm not sure what you mean by sharks who have access to low prices? the way i understand it, if you trade in the stock exchange, everybody buys the same stock at the same share price at the same time. there is no such thing as, "pssst, buy jollibee stocks from me, it's 50 cents cheaper than the other guy's offer." everybody buys at the prevailing price in the market.
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Post by ice on Aug 22, 2007 11:04:50 GMT 8
you may wanna try investing in mutual funds or balanced equity funds .... those being managed by deutsche bank and ing bank are better performing ones curahee!
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Post by maxbuwaya on Aug 22, 2007 11:07:28 GMT 8
You can try my pyramiding scheme.
Its called Mountainbikers pyramid.
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Post by gadgets88 on Aug 22, 2007 11:09:52 GMT 8
Marcs and Whoopie,
Very good advice. Informative. Thanks!
What I meant with sharks having access to profitable stocks at all-time-low is...
let's say a nice new company opens an IPO at a very low price. Doesn't the agents know it first?
If they know it first, why should they come banging at my door to tell me: "Gadgets, gadgets, open this door! Buy this stock at all-time-low and the price will fly up the sky soon!"
Wouldn't it be more profitable and normal if the agents buy and keep the stocks up to themselves first, and once the price goes up, they come banging at the client's door to earn a quick buck.
On the other hand, once the client buys the stocks, do they call them in the middle of the night and say: "sell your stocks quick before the price corrects."? (if there's such hard-working, selfless, non-profit agents, please refer them to me, if there's such a person with that kind of character).
My friends tell me the agents call them once the price is falling, and tell them to sell at a loss. (Gee! Your hair smells terrific!) When you have an agent that help you lose money instead of earn it. You're in big trouble!
So the question is... When going into stocks trading, why would agents take care of the small (trying hard wannabe = losers) investors? Shouldn't I make sure I got somebody I can trust as an agent, give him a certain percentage of my earnings (as incentive), and pray that he doesn't mess with my money?
After all, it's my money the agent is playing in that big casino! Shouldn't I be an agent if I wanna play?
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Post by Ben Dover on Aug 22, 2007 11:21:27 GMT 8
i used to have some money with "paluwagan" hehe! what a name...earns good...and tax free!
i think the other name for it is credit cooperative...just make sure you can trust the people.
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Post by marcs on Aug 22, 2007 11:23:47 GMT 8
hehehehe sorry whoopi.
gadgets, i don't understand what you're trying to ask about Capital Gains. "In finance, a capital gain is profit that results from the appreciation of a capital asset over its purchase price."
What do you mean by "not according to profit but selling price"? I think the point is, until you actually sell the property, you don't realize your Capital Gain (or loss). Net, if you have a property you bought at 10M, and it's value goes up to 10.2M, you do have a capital gain on paper, but it is not taxable yet until you actually sell the property. In which case, the profit you incurred from it, (0.2M) is subject to Capital Gains Tax.
This is why those who purchase condos at pre-selling price, might actually sell it even before the property is turned over to them. In this way, it's as if they never owned the property in the first place (you only have a Contract to Buy), and therefore they can avoid any capital gains tax (and turnover tax, and whatever tax ek ek). I've never done this, so not sure how true this is.
but yes, just go for mutual funds. inquirer.net releases a report every week on all available mutual funds along with their performance vs YA.
Insurance is always a good instrument to protect your earning capacity and your loved ones. You said you're a photographer, if you lose your arm, what happens to your profession? If you have a wife and kids, it gets even more important if you are the primary breadwinner. I agree though, insuriing kids is quite silly.
However, I'm not too keen on those insurance that offers money back after 20 years etc. They wow you with, "you give us 50k a month and we will give you 1MM . . . after 20 years!." Sounds good, but 1.) If you do the math, the actual ROI of most of these insurance packages is about 6-8% only, mutual funds or even TD can give that 2.) It's not liquid. You cannot withdraw your money before the 20 year mark (unlike TDs, or mutual funds, where you can withdraw whenever you want, sometimes with some penalty though) 3.) you are banking on this company is still in business after 20 years . . .
I personally think it's better to just put your money somewhere else, like mutual funds, and get a pure insurance policy somewhere else (where the premiums are much much less).
As for the stock market, I agree, it can be one huge casino. Speculations can sometimes affect prices more than actual company performance (e.g. if everyone gets scared that PLDT will collapse, then everyone will dump their stocks at whatever price they can get, thus bottoming out the stock price). Even worse now with a global market, as what happens on the other side of the world will impact you eventually.
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Post by marcs on Aug 22, 2007 11:26:42 GMT 8
i used to have some money with "paluwagan" hehe! what a name...earns good...and tax free! i think the other name for it is credit cooperative...just make sure you can trust the people. ye these kind of places usually offer good returns because the policies are pretty tight such that they have very low bad loans. e.g. in a typical company savings and loans association, you usually have to specify 3 employee co-guarantors. loans are salary deducted, so the loaner has no choice to pay the loan. and if he runs, well, you got 3 more employees you can deduct from! If you have a friend who works for a company that has something like this, you can ask to include some of your savings perhaps.
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Post by whoopi on Aug 22, 2007 11:54:26 GMT 8
GADGETS, from my limited knowledge, your agent (or broker) only executes what you tell him. if you tell him to alert you when the share price of PLDT floors at Php2,000, or to sell 100,000 of your Globe stocks when the buying rate strikes Php800/share. in some situations, you won't even have a human broker, you can trade online if the broker's firm offers an online account. it's YOU who have to understand the market you're playing. brokers can also dispense advise, since they're in the market everyday they can see what goes up and what goes down and how much volume is being traded etc., but i don't think you should put all your trust on your broker, you've got to have your own sense of what's happening, after all it's your money. the scenario you described, with an agent having inside knowledge of a company's shares, seems to be an inside trading scenario, which is illegal. and yes, MARCS is right, your broker's firm gets a commission per transaction. i think it's about 3% of the total transaction amount--so whether you bought or sold, regardless of whether you made money or not, your broker gets a cut. also, a company going IPO does not always mean the door opens for everyone. companies dictate the allocation of the shares--they may say, x-number of shares goes to each Board member at Php10.00/share, y-number goes to employees as stock option at Php20.00/share (yes, the buying price for employees may be higher), and then only z-number can be offered to the public at Php25.00/share. the z-number of stocks can be further restricted by saying x% will be allocated to foreign investors only, and y% will be offered to investors in the Philippines but each broker's account can only buy a maximum of 10,000 shares. it depends on what the company is trying to do--putting a cap on the number of public shares, and allocating public shares to foreign investors who cannot legally own certain businesses in the country, and offering a huge block to its own employees, ensures that majority of the company will remain in the control of the Board and its own employees, for example. you as a public investor must invest in a company that you believe is run by honest men and women who know what they are doing. you are investing your money in the company, not in your agent or broker.
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Post by Ben Dover on Aug 22, 2007 12:25:40 GMT 8
btw, i've watched a movie related to this topic " boiler room"...according to a former room mate its not far from the truth...lots of nasty people out there.
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Post by ice on Aug 22, 2007 13:04:23 GMT 8
btw, i've watched a movie related to this topic " boiler room"...according to a former room mate its not far from the truth...lots of nasty people out there. boiler room somehow is the fave movie of telemarketers/ call center folks ... guided discovery at its best! hehehe! curahee!
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DarKman
Urban Assaulter
Ride Hard... or Go Home.
Posts: 91
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Post by DarKman on Aug 22, 2007 13:29:31 GMT 8
Boiler room! one of my all time best movies seen... hehehehe... The golden rule in investing is that never get into something you have not studied thoroughly. Never rely only on your broker. As a stock holder you should be well researched and up-to-date with all the information surrounding the company you have invested in, the industry that the company is part of, and the fundamentals of the macro economy. Heck, even this is not enough now because now you have to be adept at reading the global economy as well... Read the articles or Mr. Ron "Bearbull" Nathan in the business section of the Inquirer. he is currently the Chief Technical Analyst for Abacus Securities and he also maintains a "for subscription only" news letter which a lot of investors and analysts subscribe to. I myself tried to subscribe to his newsletter but i was informed that you needed to have investments with at least 7 digits in the market...hehehehe If you want useful local info and tutorials go to: tsupitero.comOnline trading platforms like BPITrade are great because it is very fast and reduces the steps you need to take to get in and out of the market, it can be accessed virtually anywhere 24 hours a day, you can program entry & exit points and cut-loss levels, and the fees are very minimal because there is no live broker. Downside is that you have to really watch the market and everything else. Buy low, sell high Never trade against the trend Waiting for the price to dip before entering will only leave you behind Know when to cut your losses Never short the market Intra-day trading is only for seasoned veterans If you see good info in the news it's too late already The market behaves in cycles that generally lasts more than 7 years Regardless of market performance, over time your investment will still more than likely beat the average inflation rate of all the years you ave invested and give you a decent return higher than what treasury instruments offer
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DarKman
Urban Assaulter
Ride Hard... or Go Home.
Posts: 91
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Post by DarKman on Aug 22, 2007 13:33:37 GMT 8
Oh and btw, when you invest you should always accept the possibility that you may lose you principal. Rewards exist because of the risks.
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Post by allegra on Aug 22, 2007 20:48:56 GMT 8
I have a question regarding real estate. What is capital gain? Why is it not according to the gain (profit) but according to the selling price? It doesn't make sense! I'd lose money if everything is done by the book! I buy a unit for P10M, sell it P10.2M. Meaning I earned 0.2M or 200,000 from the transaction. The capital gain is based on P10.2M and not 0.2M! What kind of mathematics is that? I don't understand! and I'm a math teacher! Do you mean capital gains tax? the 5% the govt takes whenever you sell property It's based on the price sa deed of sale as long as it is above the zonal value of the property. If it's below the ZV , then the 5% is basd on the ZV. Yup , the capital gains tax is based on the 10.2M, plus you pay another 2.5% for the tranfer tax and doc stamps 2% return??? That 10M condo is a lousy investment , screw it You find someone who bought the 10m condo then lost his business , and buy it from him for 7M The market is filled w/ distressed properties ( not just condos ) Our agents have been offering me fantastic looking properties at bargain prices wala naman ako pambili hehe Imterestingly , I'm doing business w/ a lot of Koreans lately and their bringin big bucks sa ferlas ng silangan
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Post by jr on Aug 22, 2007 22:46:00 GMT 8
Ok..I dont know the process of stock trading in pinas but I'm was very active on stock for the last 13 years but recently I slowdown. Here just do online trading. Just open and acct: transfer your capital and you are ready to buy/sale stock online. I usually do bargain hunting (tax will kill you), long term, stock option, company purchased plan and I'm in control on my retirement investments. Remember stock trading is like a gambling. You must read a lot on the company history before buying there stock and be alert. If you dont you will end up broke. It happen to me before 2000 when the dot com collapse. I was planning to retire at 50. In the late 90's stock was very volatile. There was time I make $5k a day but also lost with same amount. The previous companies 401k were triple for the last 6 years. All my investment was on very aggressive. Before moving to another company I already had $290K at that time before taking another job with stock option that I could not resist. This company given me 7.5K of common stock with the price of $10 and 20% vested every year. When the company bought by bigger company our option price was $47 per share. After 4 years of working there my stock was 80% vested, split twice and steady price at $70's. I sold 20% to put down payment for a house and I keep the rest vested. When the dot com slowly collapsing I didnt react fast enough to diversify my option and 401k. I did moved my 401k's and sold majority of my stocks but not way I wanted. I'm glad I did becuase have lots of friends and co worker think it will recover but didnt happen until now. I also have family friends lost there years of investment plus the capital. Some of them they refi there homes to pay there debts. I think property investment are good in Pinas for long term. Seems like the property are going up. Not in the U.S right now, the balloon already exploded and the housing market going down fast. Oh..now retirement goal is 70 . So just be careful playing on stocks.
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